How To Think About the Future - Scenario Forecasting

A growing number of businesses use scenario forecasting to look into the future. But forecasting experts say that asking the right questions about the future may be more valuable than finding answers.

If you could see the future, what would it be? Great economic prosperity, another depression, or something in between? What will cause the next radical transformation of society?

An increasing number of business people are using a technique called "scenario forecasting" to think about these questions. They often begin the process with the expectation that they will learn how to look into the future. They soon learn that answering questions about the future isn't nearly as useful as learning how to ask them.

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Strategic Marketing Plan

The information for this article was derived from many sources, including Michael Porter's book Competitive Advantage and the works of Philip Kotler. Concepts addressed include 'generic' strategies and strategies for pricing, distribution, promotion, advertising and market segmentation. Factors such as market penetration, market share, profit margins, budgets, financial analysis, capital investment, government actions, demographic changes, emerging technology and cultural trends are also addressed.

There are two major components to your marketing strategy:

• how your enterprise will address the competitive marketplace
• how you will implement and support your day to day operations.

In today's very competitive marketplace a strategy that insures a consistent approach to offering your product or service in a way that will outsell the competition is critical. However,.........
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The Marketing Mix and 4 Ps

What is marketing? The definition that many marketers learn as they start out in the industry is:

Putting the right product in the right place, at the right price, at the right time.

It’s simple! You just need to create a product that a particularly group of people want, put it on sale some place that those same people visit regularly, and price it at a level which matches the value they feel they get out of it; and do all that at a time they want to buy. Then you’ve got it made!

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Net Present Value - NPV

The difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. NPV is used in capital budgeting to analyze the profitability of an investment or project.

NPV analysis is sensitive to the reliability of future cash inflows that an investment or project will yield.

Formula:

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Issues Workshops (Scenarios Analysis Continue)

The third stage of developing scenarios analysis is "Issues Workshops"
These workshops have the overall purpose of forcing the teams' thinking into the future by:

• testing the areas of the 'natural agenda' that are likely to have a crucial role in shaping the future
• understanding the limits to which key factors may be stretched
• debating key issues about which conflicting evidence has emerged in the interviews
• identifying and exploring the potential interaction between key factors emerging from the synthesis
• drawing out the implications for the client organization of the threats and opportunities emerging from the process, leading to the identification of strategic option
• identifying further areas where additional research is needed

The number of Issues Workshops needed will depend on the scope and complexity of the interview material. Issues Workshops are usually focused on related groups of issues under a generic heading, e.g. economic performance, marketing, culture, environment, technology, human resources, trading restraints, etc.

It is useful to plan the sequence of workshops so that the external issues lead on to market issues and both end with internal issues, e.g. starting with economic issues and finishing with internal self-renewal.

The fourth stage of developing Scenarios Analysis will be covered in next post.

Delivered Duty Paid (Incoterm 2000 continue)

Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) means that the seller pays for all transportation costs and bears all risk until the goods have been delivered and pays the duty.

Delivered Duty Unpaid (Incoterm 2000 continue)

Delivered Duty Unpaid (DDU) means that the seller pays for all transportation costs and bears all risk until the goods have been delivered, but does not pay for the duty.