How To Think About the Future - Scenario Forecasting

A growing number of businesses use scenario forecasting to look into the future. But forecasting experts say that asking the right questions about the future may be more valuable than finding answers.

If you could see the future, what would it be? Great economic prosperity, another depression, or something in between? What will cause the next radical transformation of society?

An increasing number of business people are using a technique called "scenario forecasting" to think about these questions. They often begin the process with the expectation that they will learn how to look into the future. They soon learn that answering questions about the future isn't nearly as useful as learning how to ask them.

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Strategic Marketing Plan

The information for this article was derived from many sources, including Michael Porter's book Competitive Advantage and the works of Philip Kotler. Concepts addressed include 'generic' strategies and strategies for pricing, distribution, promotion, advertising and market segmentation. Factors such as market penetration, market share, profit margins, budgets, financial analysis, capital investment, government actions, demographic changes, emerging technology and cultural trends are also addressed.

There are two major components to your marketing strategy:

• how your enterprise will address the competitive marketplace
• how you will implement and support your day to day operations.

In today's very competitive marketplace a strategy that insures a consistent approach to offering your product or service in a way that will outsell the competition is critical. However,.........
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Issues Workshops (Scenarios Analysis Continue)

The third stage of developing scenarios analysis is "Issues Workshops"
These workshops have the overall purpose of forcing the teams' thinking into the future by:

• testing the areas of the 'natural agenda' that are likely to have a crucial role in shaping the future
• understanding the limits to which key factors may be stretched
• debating key issues about which conflicting evidence has emerged in the interviews
• identifying and exploring the potential interaction between key factors emerging from the synthesis
• drawing out the implications for the client organization of the threats and opportunities emerging from the process, leading to the identification of strategic option
• identifying further areas where additional research is needed

The number of Issues Workshops needed will depend on the scope and complexity of the interview material. Issues Workshops are usually focused on related groups of issues under a generic heading, e.g. economic performance, marketing, culture, environment, technology, human resources, trading restraints, etc.

It is useful to plan the sequence of workshops so that the external issues lead on to market issues and both end with internal issues, e.g. starting with economic issues and finishing with internal self-renewal.

The fourth stage of developing Scenarios Analysis will be covered in next post.

Synthesis, Desk Research and Feedback (Scenarios Analysis Continue)

This is continuous of second stage of developing Scenarios Analysis that I have mentioned in previous post.
After finishing the first two parts of second stage, we have to follow up with the following steps to finish up the second stage.

• Synthesis

The report containing the material sorted under the 'natural agenda' is examined to:

• identify the higher order issues underlying the interview scripts;
• pull out conflicting views on issues (for further exploration);
• find memorable quotations to use in workshops and reports;
• reveal significant gaps in the material (for further interview or research).

The process of synthesis will also begin to reveal the relative importance of different issues in the minds of respondents. This pattern should not be taken "at face value" but may indicate where further evidence is needed or where challenge should be directed.

• Desk Research
  

It will often be useful to use a range sources, working from the clients' information base or external data via the web, to establish some reference points relating to trends in the external world and the competitive environment.

• Feedback

The result of the first stage will discussed with the clients in order to clarify arrangements for the first conference/workshop, the Issues Workshop. This workshop will examine the issues identified so far, and modify or prioritize the factors considered.

This is the end of second step. I will cover up the third stage of developing Scenarios Analysis; Issues Workshops, in next post.

Diagnosis, or Identifying the Focal Issue (Scenarios Analysis Continue)

Having finished the first stage which is Project Startup, we are now ready to go to second stage which is “Diagnosis, or Identifying the Focal Issue”.

Basically we can break down five parts in this stage. Let me go through each part individually.

1. Interviews

After the client has specified the scope of the scenarios, the foundation of the process is interviews of respondents, and for the likelihood that they will have meaningful insights into the forces shaping its future. The interview should encompass all the important constituencies within the client organization and reach external participants whose contribution may be important both individually and as a whole.

2. Analysis

Once a small number of interviews have been completed the issues within the material will be brought out and ordered for further processing. This is done by preparing 'trial agenda' of issues, ordered within three main areas:

• external issues
• the business interface
• internal issues

Each item in the ‘trial agenda’ will be numbered so that interview scripts can be broken down into the appropriate item number. When the ‘trial agenda’ has been stabilized it becomes the ‘natural agenda’ for the study.

When all the interview scripts have been marked up, they can be sorted by computer to produce a breakdown of the interview material under ‘natural agenda’ heading. When sorting, all the respondent names are removed to ensure that views are not attributed to individual.

The above are pretty much in deep about the first two parts of second stage of developing SScenarios Analysis. The rest three parts will be covered in the next post. Thank you again for visiting Zephyr Free Online Learning Center. Hope to see you again.

Project Startup (Scenarios Analysis Continue)

In previous post, I have mentioned steps to develop Scenarios Analysis. In this post, I will go in detail about the first step which is Project Startup. This stage is the most crucial stage for the success for project. Here are the matters which should be included in this stage:

• Appointment of an Advisory Board in the the client organization to discuss the project as it proceeds: and in addition the formal reporting requirement for budget and progress. These should be documented and copied to all team members.
• Defining scope of the project (topic, time scale).
• Appointment of Project Manager, a Client Manager and a Technical Consultant with separate roles - for budget and time scale, to keep the client informed, and to advise on methods.
• A realistic timetable needs to be set depending on the time available from team members, reporting requirements, Board meetings, etc.
• Agree a format for exchange of documents, Powerpoint slides, etc., and categorise information sources already to hand (hard copy, web portals, data sources).
• A one-day walk through of the stages of the project for the entire team to ensure that everybody understand about each coming up stage of the project.
  

Overall Steps for Scenarios Analysis

In previous post, I have mentioned about what Scenarios Analysis and how it is useful. In this post, I am going to mention about general steps to develop Scenarios Analysis.

Genrally there are five steps to develop Scenarios Analysis.
1. Project Startup,
2. Diagnosis, or Identifying the Focal Issue,
3. Issues Workshops,
4. Development of Scenarios, and
5. Investigation, Development and Evaluation of Options.

I will post detail of each step in next posts. It will help us more understanind of developing Scenarios Analysis. Thank you again for visiting Zephyr Free Online Sharing. Hope to see you again.

Scenarios Analysis

Scenarios Analysis is a tool to reduce the risk which can occur in the future. It gives you a set of possible future. It is not giving you one snap shot future forecast. It is not forecasting tool. People normally do forecasting assuming a certain variable. But I would say nothing is certain in this uncertain world. What if something go wrong in the future? What will happen to your future? Scenarios Analysis is the tool that help you cope with variation of those variable. Scenarios Analysis can be used in several fields. It is not restricted to business use only. You can use to War Game, Political Campaign, Disaster Planning, Financial Management and so on. There is almost nothing that Scenarios Analysis cannot work on.Ok let me stop here for a while. I will post about steps of Scenarios Analysis in another post.Thank you for visiting. Hope to see you again.